Oil Tops $107 as Saudi Supply Shock Collides With 88.7% Fed Hike Odds
- Crude oil prices have surged by over 2.7%, pushing Brent futures above $107 per barrel and WTI toward $103.ย
- The market is caught in a high-stakes tug-of-war between a massive Saudi supply shock and 88.7% Fed hike odds.
- Oil shock could keep the Fed hawkish, testing gold, silver, crypto and equities as inflation risks rise.
Oil is suddenly becoming the macro marketโs biggest inflation threat. A Saudi East-West pipeline was temporarily shut down after drone attacks, which pose a threat to up to 4% of global supply, pushing Brent futures above $107 a barrel and WTI toward $103.
The oil surge is colliding with hawkish Fed bets, with 10-year Treasury yields already hovering near 5%. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders have aggressively repriced the likelihood of a Fed rate hike this week to 88.7%, up significantly from a pre-inflation reading of roughly 67% aโฆ
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