Rare 30% Hike Odds Shake Bitcoin Before Most Unpredictable Fed Decision Since 2020
The Federal Reserve announces its rate decision on Wednesday, July 29, and markets cannot agree on the outcome. CME FedWatch puts Fed rate hike odds at 31.5%, with 68.5% pricing a hold.
Bitcoin (BTC) has drifted lower into the event. It trades near $63,683, down 1.87% over 24 hours, with a market value of roughly $1.28 trillion.
Why Are Fed Rate Hike Odds Stuck Near 30%?
The unusual feature is the disagreement, not the direction. Futures have swung across a 10-point band inside a single month.
| CME FedWatch reading | Hold (3.50% to 3.75%) | Hike (3.75% to 4.00%) |
|---|---|---|
| One month ago | 70.1% | 29.9% |
| One week ago | 74.3% | 25.7% |
| Monday, July 27 | 63.7% | 36.3% |
| Now | 68.5% | 31.5% |
That churn is the story. The Kobeissi Letter noted that nearly every Fed meeting since March 2020 arrived with roughly 99% consensus already priced.
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