Russia Crypto Trading Rules Take Effect as Sberbank Forecasts $46B First-Year Volume

Russia’s cryptocurrency-market law took effect on September 1, creating a regulated framework for intermediaries including crypto exchanges and digital repositories. As the market opens under the new rules, Sberbank Deputy Chairman Anatoly Popov has projected that regulated exchange trading could reach 3.5 trillion to 4 trillion rubles in the first year, or about $46.43 billion.

The forecast, reported by TASS, is significant not because it assumes Russia’s entire existing crypto market will immediately move on to licensed venues, but because it does not. Sberbank’s estimate is built around an initial migration of about one-fifth of the country’s estimated crypto-transaction activity.

Sberbank’s $46.43 billion forecast

Popov’s 3.5 trillion-to-4 trillion-ruble estimate broadly tracks Sberbank’s underlying view of the market. The bank put Russian crypto-transaction volume at roughly 50 billion rubles a day, equivalent to around 18 trillion rubles annually, according to the TASS report.

On that basis, a 20% shift into regulated exchanges would amount to about 3.6 trillion rubles, placing it within the projected first-year range. The calculation therefore leaves the larger share of estimated activity outside the newly regulated exchange segment at the outset.

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