S&P 500 Is Up 12% in 2026 But a 1907 Crash Signal Is Back

The S&P 500 has gained 12.65% in 2026 and closed Friday at 7,711.75. A Wall Street Journal column argues the closest match for today's trading frenzy is not 1999. It is 1901.

That boom ended in the Panic of 1907, with columnist Jason Zweig arguing the danger was never expensive stocks. It was borrowed money and trading that felt like gambling.

The Numbers That Rhyme With 1901

Zweig leans on one figure, the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) turnover reached 319% in 1901. The entire market changed hands roughly every four months.

Bucket shops supplied the rest, letting small customers bet, at heavy leverage, on whether a stock would tick up or down. No shares ever changed owners. That bet is recognizable in the current market.

Same-day options made up 66.2% of all S&P 500 options volume in July, an all-time high, Cboe reported. Prediction market platforms widened their catalogues again, from token prices to sporting-event phrases.

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