Same Election Question, Two Different Odds: Predictions.io Launches Free Cross-Venue Comparison Tools

Washington, United States, August 28th, 2026, Chainwire

As prediction-market volume hits record highs and regulators circle, identically worded midterm questions are trading several points apart depending on the venue. Predictions.io now tracks 9,700+ markets across Kalshi, Polymarket and Manifold in one place - with free fee and odds calculators so traders can see what a price actually costs them.

Prediction markets have never been bigger, or more contested. Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US together posted a record $50.59 billion in combined volume in July, with Kalshi accounting for roughly 74.5% of the total. In the same month, New York City opened a probe into both leading venues, a Washington judge ordered Kalshi to halt most wagers in the state, and the CFTC began an internal review of so-called “mention markets.”

Amid that scrutiny, a simpler question has gone largely unexamined: when two venues list the same question, do they agree on the answer?

Often, they do not. On identically worded midterm markets tracked by Predictions.io, “Blue tsunami in 2026?” was priced at 44.5% on Polymarket and 36.0% on Kalshi. “Blue wave in 2026?” showed 82.5% against 74.0%. Both gaps are 8.5 percentage points — on questions whose wording is identical on the two venues. Across a sample of directly comparable binary markets live on more than one venue, the median gap was more than four points, and nearly half of the pairs differed by five points or more. (Prices as of 05:08 UTC on 28 August 2026; both venues’ live prices are shown side by side on Predictions.io.)

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