Social Security COLA Forecasts for 2027: New Estimates After July CPI

The Social Security COLA forecast for 2027 sits between 3.2 and 3.6 percent right now. That range comes from the fresh July inflation numbers the Bureau of Labor Statistics released on Wednesday. A handful of groups run their own Social Security COLA 2027 estimate. Most of those estimates have trended lower lately, since inflation cooled off from its spring peak. The Social Security COLA increase 2027 would still beat this year’s 2.8 percent raise and every 2027 COLA estimate right now points in roughly the same direction. Nobody has the exact figure locked in just yet.

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Social Security COLA 2027 Estimates Shift After July CPI Data

How The Annual Adjustment Gets Calculated

Every Social Security COLA forecast for 2027 comes down to the same basic math. The Social Security Administration averages CPI-W readings for July, August and September. It then compares that average against the same three months from a year earlier. Only July’s number is in hand so far and it showed prices up 3.4 percent from a year ago, a touch below June’s 3.5 percent reading. Independent analyst Mary Johnson runs her own rolling Social Security COLA forecast for 2027 off this same monthly data. Her latest call landed at 3.4 percent. That is down from a 3.7 percent forecast last month. It is also well below the 4.7 percent she projected back in June.

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