The Clarity Act Could Be Closer Than Crypto Markets Think, Bernstein Says

TL;DR:

• Bernstein says the Clarity Act may be closer to advancing than markets expect after Republicans accepted 126 substantive changes requested by Democrats.
• The revised bill adds ethics concessions and community-bank protections, while Tuesday’s cloture vote requires 60 votes and likely some Democratic or independent support.
• Even if the bill fails, Bernstein expects faster SEC and CFTC rulemaking, though it warns a hawkish Fed plus legislative defeat could trigger a drawdown.

Bernstein analysts say the Clarity Act may be closer to advancing than crypto markets currently expect, after Senate Republicans incorporated 126 substantive changes requested by Democrats into what they described as the final draft. The key shift is that political concessions have improved the bill’s odds without being fully reflected in market pricing. Prediction-market probabilities on Kalshi moved back above 30%, while Bernstein argued that any positive surprise remains unpriced. The Senate is scheduled to hold a cloture vote Tuesday, requiring 60 votes to move forward, meaning Republicans would still need Democratic or independent support.

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