Tom Lee Says September Crash Fear Could Trigger a Stock Rally, Push Bitcoin 2x

Fundstrat's Tom Lee is treating September's crash fear as a contrarian signal. He says a market this braced for weakness could rally instead, carrying Bitcoin (BTC) toward $150,000.

Lee has not dropped his correction call. He has moved it, pointing to the September 15 Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting as the moment that decides direction.

The September Fear Lee Is Betting Against

The fear has an evidence base, because across 10 US midterm election years since 1986, the average stock market low landed on September 2.

Those lows followed an average slide of 16.77% from the prior high. That history is what makes the current dangerous September pattern worth watching.

This year adds a hawkish twist. Three Fed presidents voted for a rate hike in July, not a cut. Chair Kevin Warsh then used his first Jackson Hole speech to put inflation first. Six-month PCE inflation was running at 4.1%.

Bonds tell the same story, with the 30-year Treasury yield has held above 5%, well clear of an effective fed funds rate near 3.63%.

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