3% of Polymarket Traders Capture 27% of All Profits, Yale Study Finds

A small slice of Polymarket traders captures most of the platform's profits, a new academic study finds. Roughly 3% of accounts collected 27% of all dollar profits, and Wall Street competition is now narrowing that edge.

The working paper, co-authored by researchers at Yale and the London Business School, examined two years of Polymarket trades. It covered 1.72 million accounts and 210,322 markets.

Why Polymarket Traders' Edge Is Shrinking

The authors used a statistical test that reruns each trader's history thousands of times to separate skill from luck.

Theis Jensen is a Yale economist and co-author of the study. He expects the share of skilled traders to fall from roughly 3% to below 1% as competition increases.

He explained that more competition improves pricing.

"If you have a lot of skilled people, then they compete, and in doing so, they make prices more correct."

… Continue reading the full article at the original source below.