Up 439%, Then Margin-Called: Did Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness Actually Blow Up?

NewsThu, 30 Jul 2026 18:31:58 UTC1 hour ago
Up 439%, Then Margin-Called: Did Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness Actually Blow Up?

Situational Awareness made 439% in six months. Then margin calls took its entire stock book in one trade. Ken Griffin's Citadel bought it.

A quarter of that fund's last reported stock holdings were Bitcoin miners. That was not an accident, and it is why crypto investors are reading this story closely.

Who Is Leopold Aschenbrenner?

OpenAI hired him for its Superalignment team in 2023 and let him go in April 2024. He has said he was pushed out for raising safety concerns.

In June 2024 he published an essay series called Situational Awareness. Its central claim was blunt.

"AGI by 2027 is strikingly plausible," Leopold Aschenbrenner, in his essay series Situational Awareness, June 2024.

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AGI means software that matches humans at most tasks. But the essay did more than predict it. One chapter argued the real bottleneck would be physical. Power contracts, transformers and electricity supply, not chips.

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