Will July CPI Reset the Fed, Bitcoin, and Every Major Market?
One number lands Wednesday morning, and Wall Street cannot agree on what comes next. The July CPI (consumer price index) will hit markets with September Federal Reserve (Fed) rate odds split down the middle.
A soft print could lift stocks, bonds, and crypto together. A hot one could corner the new Fed chair and revive rate-hike bets.
Why the July CPI Report Is a Coin-Flip Moment for the Fed
CME FedWatch data shows a 50.1% chance the Fed holds in September and a 49.9% chance it hikes. That is as close to a dead heat as markets get. One week ago, hike bets stood near 58%.
Forecasters expect a mild report. A Wall Street Journal survey of 15 banks puts July headline inflation at 0.12%, or 3.4% year over year. The core measure, which strips out food and energy, is seen at 0.22%.
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