Bitcoin Price Prediction: BlackRock Just Cut Its Bitcoin ETF Minimum by 96%
Bitcoin is sitting roughly 30% below where it started the year, a level that would normally trigger a negative price prediction. Instead, BlackRock is doubling down, and the details behind that conviction matter more than the headline drawdown.
The asset manager’s latest framing treats Bitcoin’s slide from October’s $126,000 peak as a leverage unwind, not a verdict on the asset itself.
Roughly 80% of the $90 billion in crypto futures open interest near the top came from unregulated perpetual contracts, and when tariff shocks hit risk assets, that positioning liquidated fast.
Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin ETPs just posted their strongest inflow week since mid-April, about $853 million, with BlackRock’s IBIT alone pulling in $693-854 million and adding over 9,000 BTC.
BlackRock also cut IBIT’s in-kind conversion threshold by 96%, from $25 million down to $1 million, opening the door for far more accredited and institutional participation.
That’s a notable divergence from the broader macro picture, where CPI prints keep pressuring risk assets. Other forecasting models are similarly bullish into 2026, which raises the obvious question: Is the market pricing this correctly right now?
