Nvidia's Earnings Trap Explained: Why Are Traders Worried?
Nvidia (NVDA) earnings land on Wednesday, August 26, and the stock fell 2.91% to $208.48 on Monday, its seventh straight losing session before the report.
The slide looks strange because prediction markets give the report a near-certain beat. However, money flow, options, and betting data point to the real answer. Traders do not fear the result. They fear what follows it.
Big Money Is Leaving Every Chip Stock
The clearest warning sits in Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), a proxy for institutional buying and selling pressure. As of August 25, the 20-day CMF reads negative for all ten major chip names, which suggests big money may be quietly exiting the sector. The sector-wise institutional outflow trend, right before Nvidia earnings, is no coincidence.
Additionally, Nvidia sits at the bottom of the table at -0.155, weaker than AMD at -0.149 and TSMC at -0.06. Nvidia leads the group, and its seventh straight drop, the longest losing streak since 2022, has spread caution across the sector.
Outflows alone, though, do not prove traders expect a fall. The options market does.
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