Anthropic Models 3 AI Futures for 2030 After Its Researcher Warns of Extinction
Anthropic has published a model of how artificial intelligence (AI) could reshape the US economy by 2030. Interestingly, its fastest growth case is the one that cuts knowledge worker wages by more than 10%.
The company's economics team released the tool alongside a technical report, Economic Scenarios for Transformative AI, and invited readers to plug in their own forecasts.
Three Futures With Very Different Winners
The model runs three cases, coming only hours after researcher Jacob Coxon said he had resigned from Anthropic and accused the industry of racing toward self-improving superintelligence.
That same capability triggers the model's worst case:
- Modest case
AI matches the internet in scale and lifts gross domestic product (GDP) to $34.1 trillion, a 1.6% gain.
- Substantial case
Assumes AI handles half of all knowledge work by 2030. GDP reaches $36.3 trillion, roughly twice the normal growth rate, while unemployment settles near 5%. Knowledge worker wages stay flat.
- Extreme case
Requires AI that improves its own capabilities without human help. Annual growth hits 15%, GDP reaches $44.4 trillion, and unemployment spikes to historic levels. Knowledge worker pay falls by more than 10%.
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