400% Strait Traffic Surge Eases Supply Fears, Will Oil Break Lower Monday?
Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz jumped almost 400% in two weeks. The report landed on Saturday, with oil markets shut. Monday is the first chance traders get to price it.
On the surface, that should ease supply fears and pull crude lower. More ships means more oil. Yet the shipping data carries a catch that argues the drop may never arrive.
Hormuz Traffic Recovers But Stays Far Below Pre-War Levels
The surge is real, and it is easy to check. UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), the British naval body that tracks merchant shipping in the Gulf, publishes a weekly transit count.
In the week to August 7, it logged 39 full transits. A week later, 151. In the week to August 21, 192, according to its latest report. That is a rise of 392% in 14 days, so the headline number holds up.
The baseline is another matter. Before the war, roughly 20.9 million barrels a day moved through the strait, EIA figures show. That is close to a fifth of everything the world burns.
Today's traffic sits about 90% below that mark, by UKMTO's own reckoning. Going from almost nothing to slightly more than almost nothing still produces a spectacular percentage.
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